Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 4.220554 4.997878 5.859644 6.883245 8.063150 9.377706 10.950227
2025-06-08 2.918855 3.922403 5.161011 6.789858 8.861659 11.393767 14.705649
2025-06-15 2.294912 3.431617 4.965726 7.157525 10.172661 14.133393 19.679968
2025-06-22 1.784607 2.936112 4.617829 7.199476 10.995750 16.292695 24.139656
2025-06-29 1.417849 2.544299 4.310273 7.198875 11.699941 18.313332 28.587822
2025-07-06 1.143684 2.224781 4.033765 7.167744 12.310444 20.218682 33.025140
2025-07-13 1.040270 2.165670 4.153763 7.764614 13.943987 23.800369 40.297244
2025-07-20 0.904360 2.014462 4.083477 8.018651 15.031839 26.616573 46.623343
2025-07-27 0.800239 1.899441 4.052921 8.326389 16.229290 29.702940 53.634872
2025-08-03 0.680903 1.725067 3.877199 8.334456 16.886616 31.929938 59.397125
2025-08-10 0.555164 1.506131 3.572376 8.044075 16.952074 33.123733 63.479533
2025-08-17 0.444881 1.294521 3.242037 7.646701 16.754223 33.809820 66.702794
2025-08-24 0.373685 1.163175 3.067436 7.556965 17.168525 35.693464 72.320759
2025-08-31 0.313870 1.045710 2.903085 7.465627 17.571946 37.602862 78.171749
2025-09-07 0.290010 1.021563 2.956556 7.869410 19.051535 41.711457 88.483334
2025-09-14 0.251791 0.944440 2.863174 7.916417 19.767093 44.370679 96.212496
2025-09-21 0.217333 0.868501 2.757554 7.916249 20.374661 46.858700 103.791203
2025-09-28 0.186853 0.795885 2.645969 7.882541 20.898467 49.212568 111.272495
2025-10-05 0.182831 0.813933 2.792688 8.531966 23.078395 55.217023 126.583706
2025-10-12 0.167167 0.785120 2.797780 8.808228 24.398924 59.482783 138.594710
2025-10-19 0.154625 0.764345 2.823167 9.142764 25.894703 64.241861 151.953196
2025-10-26 0.135451 0.710722 2.735954 9.151535 26.583533 67.269025 161.839389
2025-11-02 0.112120 0.630617 2.545911 8.835882 26.412918 68.345071 167.593219